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ChinainTransitionChina’scapacity-theimbalance,theinflections,andbeyondcyclesGoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthe?rmmayhaveacon?ictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgo/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaf?liatesarenotregistered/quali?edasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.FulllistofauthorsinsideWeconcludethatChinesemanufacturersarerespondingtopoorproitabilityanduncertaintiesaroundlimitationstomarketaccesstotheUSandEU,pre-emptivelyadjustingthepaceoffutureadditionsofcapacity,incontrasttoconsensusnarratives.Weexpectarebalancinginsupplyversusdemand,arestorationinproit,andsharpdecelerationofChinesesupplytotheworldthrough2028.OurRuleofThreeandtippingpointframeworkssuggestthat:(1)solarandlithiumbatteriesaretheclosesttoreachinganinflectionpointintheirsupply/demandimbalances,withnegativecashmarginsandreductionsinCapexplanssetagainststillsoliddemandgrowth;(2)electricvehiclesandpowersemisarefurthestfromaninflectionpoint,drivenbyboththeirbalancesheetsandproitabilitypositioning;and(3)tippingpointsmaybealteredbysupplysidereforms,competitiveindustrystructures,capacityexpansionex-Chinaaswellasdemanddestruction,iffacedwithaglobaleconomicslowdown.AyearagoourChinateamdeconstructedChina’ssupplychainamidstunprecedentedchangestotheoutlook,tobuildapictureofresilience,opportunityandvulnerability.Ayear
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